Global FX: Interrogating the optimistic baseline

The At Any Rate FX podcast centers on consolidating views on currency trends amidst a holiday-shortened week. The discussion addresses the surprising resilience of Aussie and Norway currencies despite tech stock volatility, attributing this to domestic cyclical strength and flow asymmetries rather than just commodity exports. A key point of contention is the disconnect between Japanese fixed income and FX markets, with panelists debating whether Yen's weakness reflects a temporary abatement of fiscal concerns or deeper issues with BOJ policy. The conversation also covers the potential impact of US-Iran geopolitics on risk assets, drawing parallels with past events to suggest that a major deleveraging isn't guaranteed. Finally, the panel considers the end of the Lunar New Year and its implications for the CNY, weighing potential trade negotiations between the US and China.