A Novel Way to Shop Online

Agentic commerce is projected to represent 10% to 20% of total U.S. e-commerce by 2030, potentially adding 100 to 300 basis points to sector growth. While 40% to 50% of consumers currently use AI for product research, only a mid-single-digit percentage utilize these tools for actual transactions, highlighting a significant adoption gap. Morgan Stanley analysts Brian Nowak and Nathan Feather identify grocery and consumer packaged goods as the primary catalysts for this shift due to the high friction of manual online basket building. This transition poses a structural risk to retail media profit pools as AI agents begin to act as gatekeepers, potentially shifting the monetization model from high-cost search clicks to lower-margin commission fees. To navigate this evolution, retailers must utilize the "Five I's" framework—focusing on inventory, infrastructure, innovation, incrementality, and income statement stability—to maintain direct consumer relationships in an increasingly automated marketplace.