Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes

Tom Hayes delivers insights on value investing, emphasizing a contrarian approach of buying out-of-favor, durable businesses with catalysts for change. He stresses the importance of solvency, shareholder-friendly management, and a strong competitive moat, using VF Corp as a prime example of a turnaround play. Hayes advises against chasing shiny objects and highlights the significance of massive inaction in investing, contrasting it with the massive action required for entrepreneurship. He shares his investment framework, influenced by Warren Buffett and Ben Graham, advocating for a long-term perspective and ignoring short-term market noise. The podcast also addresses specific stock picks and offers career advice for aspiring investors.

Outlines

Part 1: Personal Updates and USC Engagement

Part 2: Investment Philosophy and Strategy

Part 3: Turnaround Framework and Core Filters

Part 4: Case Study: VF Corp and PayPal

Part 5: Lessons for Success and Portfolio Management

Part 6: Market Trends and Current Positions

Part 7: Ask Me Anything: Stock Analysis

Part 8: Career Advice and Final Evaluations

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Hedge Fund Tips with Tom Hayes - podcast - Episode 331 - February 16, 2026

Part 1: Personal Updates and USC Engagement

00:00Personal Updates, Water Polo, Swimming, Valentine's Day, and Quick Goal Highlights

Personal Updates, Water Polo, Swimming, Valentine's Day, and Quick Goal Highlights

02:26Speaking at USC Marshall School of Business and Investing Framework Overview

Speaking at USC Marshall School of Business and Investing Framework Overview

Part 2: Investment Philosophy and Strategy

05:18Early Career Experiences and the "Private Equity in Public Markets" Investment Strategy

Early Career Experiences and the "Private Equity in Public Markets" Investment Strategy

09:25The Value Framework, Warren Buffett, and the Importance of Inaction in Investing

The Value Framework, Warren Buffett, and the Importance of Inaction in Investing

12:31Time Arbitrage, Buying on Weakness, and Avoiding Software Stocks

Time Arbitrage, Buying on Weakness, and Avoiding Software Stocks

16:29Time Arbitrage, Clearance Sales, and the South Sea Bubble

Time Arbitrage, Clearance Sales, and the South Sea Bubble

20:24Temperament vs. Intellect, Bitcoin, and Buffett's Greatest Performance Years

Temperament vs. Intellect, Bitcoin, and Buffett's Greatest Performance Years

23:52Permanent vs. Impermanent Capital and the Importance of a Business-Like Approach

Permanent vs. Impermanent Capital and the Importance of a Business-Like Approach

Part 3: Turnaround Framework and Core Filters

27:41Turnaround Tom, Solvency Risk, and Shareholder-Friendly Management

Turnaround Tom, Solvency Risk, and Shareholder-Friendly Management

30:32Temporary vs. Permanent Impairment, Channel Checks, and the Four Core Filters

Temporary vs. Permanent Impairment, Channel Checks, and the Four Core Filters

Part 4: Case Study: VF Corp and PayPal

33:02VF Corp as a Textbook Self-Help Story and Weak Dollar Thesis

VF Corp as a Textbook Self-Help Story and Weak Dollar Thesis

35:34VF Corp's Brand Portfolio, Debt Reduction, and Bracken Darrell's Turnaround Expertise

VF Corp's Brand Portfolio, Debt Reduction, and Bracken Darrell's Turnaround Expertise

39:46PayPal, Growth Inflection, and Brand Heat Rebuilding at VF Corp

PayPal, Growth Inflection, and Brand Heat Rebuilding at VF Corp

43:01Margin Inflection, Opinion Follows Trend, and Offering Value First

Margin Inflection, Opinion Follows Trend, and Offering Value First

Part 5: Lessons for Success and Portfolio Management

48:01Three Lessons That Matter Most and Q&A Introduction

Three Lessons That Matter Most and Q&A Introduction

51:27Key Ratios, Channel Checks, and Disqualifying Opportunities

Key Ratios, Channel Checks, and Disqualifying Opportunities

55:27Cost of Capital, Long-Term Growth, and Common Sense

Cost of Capital, Long-Term Growth, and Common Sense

1:01:25Special Situations, Solvency, and the Sazpocalypse

Special Situations, Solvency, and the Sazpocalypse

1:04:24Software Stocks, Shorts, and Defensive Positioning

Software Stocks, Shorts, and Defensive Positioning

1:08:53Consumer Spending, Tax Refunds, and the Year of Main Street

Consumer Spending, Tax Refunds, and the Year of Main Street

1:15:39Pulling the Plug, PayPal, and the Importance of Outs

Pulling the Plug, PayPal, and the Importance of Outs

1:21:30Worst Stock Ever Purchased and the Importance of Knowing What You Don't Know

Worst Stock Ever Purchased and the Importance of Knowing What You Don't Know

Part 6: Market Trends and Current Positions

1:24:07Quote of the Week, Podcast Shares, and Cooper Standard

Quote of the Week, Podcast Shares, and Cooper Standard

1:26:17Cooper Standard, AI Rotation, and Emerging Markets

Cooper Standard, AI Rotation, and Emerging Markets

1:31:25U.S. vs. the World, Energy, and the Un-Magnificent 493

U.S. vs. the World, Energy, and the Un-Magnificent 493

1:34:42Put Call Ratio, Software Stocks, and New Vehicle Sales

Put Call Ratio, Software Stocks, and New Vehicle Sales

1:37:21Tax Refunds, Consumer Discretionary, and Housing Crisis

Tax Refunds, Consumer Discretionary, and Housing Crisis

1:41:24Cooper Standard's Strong Quarter and Refinancing Catalyst

Cooper Standard's Strong Quarter and Refinancing Catalyst

1:47:53Baxter's Earnings and Turnaround Potential

Baxter's Earnings and Turnaround Potential

1:55:40Baxter's Key Points and Fear and Greed in the Market

Baxter's Key Points and Fear and Greed in the Market

Part 7: Ask Me Anything: Stock Analysis

2:01:22Gladstone Land Analysis: A Long-Term Bet on Commodity Prices

Gladstone Land Analysis: A Long-Term Bet on Commodity Prices

2:07:51FET Analysis: Dilution Concerns and Better Ways to Play the Theme

FET Analysis: Dilution Concerns and Better Ways to Play the Theme

2:11:11SPSY Analysis: Niche Business with Debt Refinance Risk

SPSY Analysis: Niche Business with Debt Refinance Risk

2:14:54ONON Analysis: A Fad with High Valuation and Limited Long-Term Appeal

ONON Analysis: A Fad with High Valuation and Limited Long-Term Appeal

2:18:14Tate & Lyle Analysis: A Potential Fit with Ingredient Solutions Theme

Tate & Lyle Analysis: A Potential Fit with Ingredient Solutions Theme

2:20:03Teladoc Analysis: Disintermediation Risk and Lack of Unique Value