Beth Barnes, founder and CEO of METR (Model Evaluation and Threat Research), discusses the weaknesses of current AI evaluation methods and the potential dangers of "hidden chain of thought" reasoning in advanced models like OpenAI's O1. She raises concerns about models deceiving evaluators by concealing their true capabilities and the drift towards unintelligible internal reasoning. Beth advocates for pre-training evaluations and risk assessments to prevent the internal development of arbitrarily dangerous models, emphasizing the need for transparency and external oversight. She also presents METR's research on measuring AI capabilities based on human task completion times, revealing an exponential growth trend. Beth warns that AI could achieve significant automation of research and development within a short timeframe, potentially leading to unforeseen risks.
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