John Mearsheimer: Is China the Real Winner of Ukraine War? | Endgame #136 (Luminaries)

International relations scholar John Mearsheimer analyzes the current global order through the lens of realism, arguing that states prioritize survival and power balances over ideological alignment. The war in Ukraine serves as a primary example of this dynamic, where NATO expansion into Russia’s sphere of influence triggered a conflict that Mearsheimer views as a predictable, albeit catastrophic, consequence of ignoring geopolitical constraints. Beyond Europe, the rise of China as a peer competitor to the United States has shifted the strategic focus toward East Asia, creating a multipolar world defined by intense security competition. Mearsheimer contends that the United States is currently trapped in a dangerous cycle of escalation in both Ukraine and the Pacific, exacerbated by a foreign policy establishment that consistently underestimates the risks of challenging established great-power interests.