Uneasy Calm: Ryan Hass on Three Pathways for U.S.-China Relations Under Trump

The U.S.-China relationship under Trump's second presidency is analyzed, focusing on whether the current "uneasy calm" will last or revert to acrimony. Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, discusses three plausible pathways: a soft landing, a hard split, and an uneasy calm. Hass suggests Trump's personalistic approach and China's desire for self-reliance contribute to the current stability, driven by mutual vulnerability rather than trust. Key factors influencing the relationship include domestic forces in both countries, economic dependencies, and potential miscalculations, particularly regarding Taiwan. The discussion also covers the importance of leadership interactions, policy signals, and the balance between competition and cooperation in shaping the future trajectory.

Outlines

Part 1: Introduction and Current Context

Part 2: Trump’s Strategy and Domestic Drivers

Part 3: China’s Perspective and Xi’s Strategy

Part 4: Scenarios for the Future: Soft Landing vs. Hard Split

Part 5: Crisis Management and Long-term Stability

Part 6: Strategic Outlook and Global Power Shifts

Part 7: Indicators to Watch and Recommendations

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Sinica Podcast

Part 1: Introduction and Current Context

Introduction to the Sinica Podcast and Institutional Support Appeal

The Shifting Landscape of US-China Relations Under Trump's Second Presidency

Part 2: Trump’s Strategy and Domestic Drivers

Domestic Forces Shaping US-China Policy and Trump's Approach

Trump's Motivations: Rare Earths, Global Problems, and American Appetite

The Potential for Trump's China Policy to Outlast His Presidency

Part 3: China’s Perspective and Xi’s Strategy

Xi's Considerations: Self-Reliance, Narratives, and Internal Debates

Mutual Vulnerability and the Realization of Potential Harm

Part 4: Scenarios for the Future: Soft Landing vs. Hard Split

The Soft Landing Scenario: Improving Relations and Costly Signals

Costly Signals from Beijing and the Lack of Historical Precedent

Taiwan as a Potential Obstacle to a Soft Landing

The Hard Split Scenario: Triggers and Potential for Escalation

Mitigating Factors Against a Hard Split and Areas of Miscalculation

Part 5: Crisis Management and Long-term Stability

Managing Crisis and the Importance of Leader-to-Leader Communication

Buying Time and Building Insulation: The Most Likely Path

Underappreciated Vulnerabilities and Mutual Dependencies

Part 6: Strategic Outlook and Global Power Shifts

Assessing Success in Reducing Dependencies and America's Eroding Competitiveness

The Fragility of Equilibrium and the Debate Over Power Transition vs. Diffusion

Engineering Resilience Under Enduring Mistrust and the Fraught Moment

Part 7: Indicators to Watch and Recommendations

Key Indicators to Watch and the Importance of Atmospherics

Recommendations and Closing Remarks

Uneasy Calm: Ryan Hass on Three Pathways for U.S.-China Relations Under Trump

Sinica Podcast

Part 1: Introduction and Current Context

00:09Introduction to the Sinica Podcast and Institutional Support Appeal

Introduction to the Sinica Podcast and Institutional Support Appeal

01:48The Shifting Landscape of US-China Relations Under Trump's Second Presidency

The Shifting Landscape of US-China Relations Under Trump's Second Presidency

Part 2: Trump’s Strategy and Domestic Drivers

04:21Domestic Forces Shaping US-China Policy and Trump's Approach

Domestic Forces Shaping US-China Policy and Trump's Approach

07:08Trump's Motivations: Rare Earths, Global Problems, and American Appetite

Trump's Motivations: Rare Earths, Global Problems, and American Appetite

09:58The Potential for Trump's China Policy to Outlast His Presidency

The Potential for Trump's China Policy to Outlast His Presidency

Part 3: China’s Perspective and Xi’s Strategy

12:28Xi's Considerations: Self-Reliance, Narratives, and Internal Debates

Xi's Considerations: Self-Reliance, Narratives, and Internal Debates

15:07Mutual Vulnerability and the Realization of Potential Harm

Mutual Vulnerability and the Realization of Potential Harm

Part 4: Scenarios for the Future: Soft Landing vs. Hard Split

17:24The Soft Landing Scenario: Improving Relations and Costly Signals

The Soft Landing Scenario: Improving Relations and Costly Signals

20:31Costly Signals from Beijing and the Lack of Historical Precedent

Costly Signals from Beijing and the Lack of Historical Precedent

22:53Taiwan as a Potential Obstacle to a Soft Landing

Taiwan as a Potential Obstacle to a Soft Landing

25:56The Hard Split Scenario: Triggers and Potential for Escalation

The Hard Split Scenario: Triggers and Potential for Escalation

27:54Mitigating Factors Against a Hard Split and Areas of Miscalculation

Mitigating Factors Against a Hard Split and Areas of Miscalculation

Part 5: Crisis Management and Long-term Stability

30:32Managing Crisis and the Importance of Leader-to-Leader Communication

Managing Crisis and the Importance of Leader-to-Leader Communication

33:38Buying Time and Building Insulation: The Most Likely Path

Buying Time and Building Insulation: The Most Likely Path

35:53Underappreciated Vulnerabilities and Mutual Dependencies

Underappreciated Vulnerabilities and Mutual Dependencies

Part 6: Strategic Outlook and Global Power Shifts

38:11Assessing Success in Reducing Dependencies and America's Eroding Competitiveness

Assessing Success in Reducing Dependencies and America's Eroding Competitiveness

42:09The Fragility of Equilibrium and the Debate Over Power Transition vs. Diffusion

The Fragility of Equilibrium and the Debate Over Power Transition vs. Diffusion

44:30Engineering Resilience Under Enduring Mistrust and the Fraught Moment

Engineering Resilience Under Enduring Mistrust and the Fraught Moment

Part 7: Indicators to Watch and Recommendations

46:43Key Indicators to Watch and the Importance of Atmospherics

Key Indicators to Watch and the Importance of Atmospherics

50:10Recommendations and Closing Remarks

Recommendations and Closing Remarks