The worst tech prediction...

Technological forecasting is frequently driven by financial interests and cognitive biases rather than objective foresight, rendering even the most informed predictions unreliable. Historical failures from industry titans illustrate this disconnect: Steve Ballmer dismissed the iPhone’s market potential due to its high price point, while Bill Gates incorrectly predicted the end of email spam by 2006 and the total dominance of tablet PCs by 2011. These errors often stem from linear thinking, as seen in Paul Krugman’s comparison of the internet’s economic impact to that of a fax machine, or from protective commercial agendas, such as Steve Jobs’ public dismissal of music subscriptions while promoting iTunes. Ultimately, expertise and access to data do not guarantee accuracy, as innovators often fail to anticipate how systems evolve under pressure or how business model innovations can overcome technical hurdles. Current AI hype likely follows this same pattern of motivated reasoning and overconfidence.