
The central question explored is whether Bitcoin is currently in a bear market and, if so, what distinguishes it from previous downturns. Pompliano argues that Bitcoin is indeed in a bear market, evidenced by its price decline from $126,000 to $75,000, but suggests that reduced volatility means drawdowns may be less severe than the historical 80%. He attributes the price decrease to forward-looking markets anticipating deflation rather than inflation, and to central banks favoring gold over Bitcoin as a de-fiat strategy. While not expecting an 80% drawdown, he cautions that forced selling by Bitcoin treasury companies due to debt obligations could exacerbate the situation.
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