FX, intervention risks and technicals

The podcast centers on global G10 rates and FX strategy, particularly focusing on the dollar sell-off and potential market impacts. The discussion begins with an explanation of rate checks by central banks and their signaling effect on intervention, differentiating between those by the Bank of Japan and the New York Fed. The panelists examine the risk of a yen carry trade unwind, assessing its current size relative to previous events in 2024, and also explore the technical outlook for JGB yields, noting the uptrend and potential for further yield discovery. Additionally, the conversation covers the dollar index decoupling from rate differentials, attributing it to a US-centric risk premium and broader fiscal concerns reflected in the precious metals market. The podcast concludes with analysis of European asset manager hedging dynamics and the potential dollar impact of Kevin Walsh's nomination as the new Fed chair.