The Year Ahead 2026: When all is Fed and done

Looking ahead to 2026, the podcast explores the future of bond markets, focusing on the themes of funding deficits, demand-supply dynamics, and central bank independence across the UK, Europe, and the US. Paul Robson highlights the UK's heavy issuance and shifting demand for government bonds, while Joann Spadigam discusses Europe's hefty issuance, the impact of German defense spending, and the structural shift in pension fund demand. Stuart Sparks anticipates unchanged net coupon supply in the US but expects higher bill issuance, along with curve steepening. The panel also debates the potential for a US policy mistake, with discussions around the Fed's reaction to inflation and potential changes to its definition of price stability.