A Rebound for Hong Kong’s Property Market

Hong Kong’s real estate market is entering a rare synchronized recovery where residential prices, office rents, and retail sales are projected to grow together for the first time since 2018. Residential property serves as the primary engine for this turnaround, with prices expected to rise by 5% in 2025 and over 10% in 2026. This shift is driven by the removal of restrictive stamp duties, which has increased the share of mainland Chinese buyers from 20% to 50% of total sales. Strengthening demand fundamentals also support this growth, as population figures reached 7.5 million in 2025 and talent visa approvals doubled pre-COVID levels. Furthermore, housing affordability has returned to 2011 levels, coinciding with a 30% surge in the Hang Seng Index and falling mortgage rates. These factors collectively signal a significant market pivot, positioning Hong Kong as a thriving global monetary link between China and international capital.