This episode of Excess Returns features Gene Munster and Doug Clinton breaking down their 2026 technology and market predictions, with a deep focus on artificial intelligence, big tech, and where investors may be misreading the current cycle. The conversation explores how far along the AI bull market really is, what fundamentals still support it, and where the biggest opportunities and risks may emerge over the next several years. Munster and Clinton discuss market structure, capital spending, valuation, and technological inflection points across AI, software, hardware, and autonomous driving, offering a grounded but forward-looking framework for long-term investors.

Main topics covered

Why the AI bull market may still have multiple years left and how fundamentals support current valuations
Nasdaq return expectations through 2026 and what earnings and multiples imply for investors
The case for small-cap and non–Mag Seven tech outperforming as the AI cycle matures
Hyperscaler AI capital spending and why CapEx growth could exceed current expectations
Whether AI pricing pressure leads to commoditization or expanding long-term value creation
How AI is changing the economics of infrastructure, platforms, and asset-heavy tech businesses
Apple’s AI strategy, the future of Siri, and why expectations matter for valuation
Alphabet, Amazon, and the evolving AI competition among the largest technology companies
Energy constraints, data centers, nuclear power, and the infrastructure needed to support AI growth
Tesla, Waymo, and the realistic timeline for autonomous driving and robotaxi adoption
How physical AI, autonomy, and robotics could reshape transportation and consumer behavior

Timestamps
00:00 AI cycle outlook and why the bull market may still be early
05:00 Nasdaq return expectations and earnings fundamentals
10:30 Small-cap tech versus Mag Seven performance
17:15 Hyperscaler AI CapEx and Nvidia’s signals
24:00 Infrastructure, pricing power, and AI commoditization debates
32:30 Apple, Siri, and consumer AI assistants
38:50 Alphabet, Amazon, and AI competition among mega-cap tech
45:00 Energy, data centers, and nuclear power considerations
48:10 Tesla, autonomy, and robotaxi timelines
54:15 Waymo, market share, and the future of transportation

Disbelief Is the Real Risk: Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on Why the AI Bubble is Just Getting Started

Excess Returns