Canada's 'Mystery' Real Estate Bottom

Real estate industry claims that the market bottom is impossible to identify serve as a sales tactic to pressure buyers into immediate action. Data from the Federal Reserve and historical trends in Toronto, London, and national Canadian markets demonstrate a consistent inverse correlation between months of inventory (MOI) and housing prices. Sustained price increases rarely occur when the MOI remains above three, while a high MOI—currently exceeding four in many regions—indicates that prices are likely to continue falling or remain stagnant. While industry slogans like "marry the house, date the rate" lack mathematical backing, tracking relative supply provides a reliable scientific indicator for approaching market bottoms. Although exogenous shocks can occasionally disrupt this pattern, the fundamental laws of supply and demand remain the most accurate tool for first-time homebuyers to gauge market timing and avoid overpaying during a downturn.