The financial markets remain strikingly calm following significant political developments in Venezuela, reflecting a belief that near-term oil supply remains manageable due to a global inventory cushion. While current Venezuelan output is limited to approximately 0.8 to 1 million barrels per day, the potential revival of its 300-billion-barrel reserves creates a bearish medium-term outlook for Brent prices, which may slide into the mid-50s. U.S. Gulf Coast refiners like Valero and Marathon Petroleum stand to benefit from increased access to heavy sour crude, while Chevron maintains a unique position through existing sanctions waivers. Simultaneously, Venezuelan sovereign and PDVSA debt prices have surged over 25% to multi-year highs as investors anticipate a creditor-friendly transition and improved recovery rates. Ultimately, these geopolitical shifts reinforce prevailing market trends of ample oil supply and strong credit appetite without disrupting broader positive momentum.
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