The podcast explores the implications of a shifting global order, moving away from globalization towards regional spheres of influence, and its potential benefits for trend-following investment strategies. It suggests that this fragmentation, characterized by slower-moving imbalances and a lack of coordinated central bank intervention, creates persistent trends ideal for trend following. The hosts also review the past year's performance, noting the concentration of profits in metals, particularly gold, and the challenges faced by short-term trading strategies. A key theme emphasizes the importance of diversification and patience in trend following, highlighting how a rules-based approach can navigate unusual and unpredictable market conditions. The conversation further delves into how traders think about uncertainty, advocating for predetermined responses and trading the present rather than relying on predictions.
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