The U.S.-India partnership has been a cornerstone of American Indo-Pacific strategy for two decades, but it’s now facing its most serious crisis. After bipartisan American efforts to bring India into closer partnership as a counterweight to China, President Trump has triggered the most dramatic deterioration in U.S.-India relations in a generation. What began with optimism in Delhi about Trump 2.0 has devolved into a breakdown of trust, escalating tariffs, and diplomatic miscalculation that threatens the entire architecture of Indo-Pacific security.

In this essential episode, hosts Ray Powell (former U.S. military officer) and Jim Carouso (former U.S. diplomat) welcome back James Crabtree - distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, former Financial Times bureau chief for India, and author of the acclaimed book “The Billionaire Raj.” Drawing on his recent Foreign Affairs article, “The India That Trump Made,” Crabtree unpacks how two decades of strategic partnership have been upended in less than a year.

What Happened?

India expected favorable treatment from Trump given Modi’s strong personal relationship with the president during his first term. Instead, they received 50% tariffs - first 25% on general goods, then another 25% for buying Russian oil, putting India’s tariff burden equal to China’s. Then came the Pakistan crisis: when India and Pakistan clashed in Operation Sindor, Trump claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire that India insists he didn’t actually broker. Trump’s perceived slight over not receiving sufficient credit has fueled ongoing tensions, while Pakistan successfully leveraged the moment through crypto deals, a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for Trump, and high-level military diplomacy.

Strategic Consequences

The Quad, the critical U.S.-Australia-India-Japan partnership, is essentially stalled, with a planned summit canceled and little energy for revival. India is now pursuing what Crabtree calls a “pivot to Europe,” seeking to replace American technology transfer, investment, and defense expertise with European alternatives. An EU-India summit in January will likely announce a long-negotiated trade deal, marking India’s shift toward multi-alignment rather than U.S. partnership.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has successfully re-emerged as a regional player, signing security treaties with Saudi Arabia that include nuclear assurances and repositioning itself diplomatically after years in India’s shadow. Russia remains a “diminishing asset” for India due to supply unreliability and limited technological offerings, though Delhi still needs Moscow for defense systems like the S-400 and to prevent Russia from becoming a complete Chinese vassal state.

India’s Future

Despite the diplomatic turbulence, India posted 8% GDP growth last quarter and remains on a positive economic trajectory, though still a developing country at $2,000-3,000 per capita income. Prime Minister Modi, now in his third term and 11 years in office, continues to dominate Indian politics and will likely seek a fourth term, cementing his status as the most significant political figure in independent Indian history. India’s “Make in India” defense ambitions are advancing slowly, with systems like the BrahMos missile finding export success in Southeast Asia, though India remains heavily import-dependent for military hardware.

Can U.S.-India trust be rebuilt? Crabtree is pessimistic: “The trust that had been built up between the U.S. and India over a two-decade period has been destroyed”. The pro-American camp in Delhi that architected the strategic partnership has been undermined, while pro-Russia voices feel vindicated.

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