30 Dec 2025

AppLovin at $250B: What Operators Know That Investors Don't | Pixels & Profits

GameMakers

The podcast analyzes AppLovin's financial performance, future prospects, and competitive positioning in the mobile gaming and ad tech industries. It highlights AppLovin's impressive growth, substantial EBITDA margins, and strategic shift away from its gaming division. The discussion also covers the bull case, emphasizing AppLovin's lock-in strategy, e-commerce expansion, and advantages over larger competitors like Meta and Google. The bear case explores potential risks, including valuation concerns, growth sustainability, and the possibility of platform restrictions due to data collection practices. Josh Chandley, CEO of Wildcard Games, offers insights into AppLovin's dominance in mobile ad monetization and user acquisition, particularly within the gaming sector. The conversation also addresses the potential impact of Google's privacy sandbox and the competitive threats from Unity and Moloco.

Outlines

Part 1: Introduction, Financial Performance

Part 2: The Bull Case, Market Dominance

Part 3: The Bear Case, Risks, Compliance

Part 4: Platform Stability, Infrastructure

Part 5: Technical Edge, Data Innovation

Part 6: Competitive Landscape, Future Outlook

Part 7: Conclusion, 2026 Projections

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Preview

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AppLovin at $250B: What Operators Know That Investors Don't | Pixels & Profits

GameMakers

Part 1: Introduction, Financial Performance

00:00AppLovin's Performance and Future Outlook: An Expert Panel Discussion

AppLovin's Performance and Future Outlook: An Expert Panel Discussion

00:21Discussion Framework: Financial Recap, Bull & Bear Cases, Competitive Landscape, Future Outlook

Discussion Framework: Financial Recap, Bull & Bear Cases, Competitive Landscape, Future Outlook

01:19AppLovin's Financial Success: Stock Surge, Revenue Growth, and High Margins

AppLovin's Financial Success: Stock Surge, Revenue Growth, and High Margins

04:46Justifying AppLovin's Valuation: Growth Expectations, SaaS Model, and AI Infatuation

Justifying AppLovin's Valuation: Growth Expectations, SaaS Model, and AI Infatuation

Part 2: The Bull Case, Market Dominance

07:16AppLovin's Margin Dominance and the Bull Case: Lock-in, E-commerce Expansion, Disadvantaged Giants

AppLovin's Margin Dominance and the Bull Case: Lock-in, E-commerce Expansion, Disadvantaged Giants

10:41AppLovin's Defensibility: Controlling the Ad Network and Mediation Platform

AppLovin's Defensibility: Controlling the Ad Network and Mediation Platform

14:08E-commerce Expansion: AppLovin's Dominance and Margin Expansion

E-commerce Expansion: AppLovin's Dominance and Margin Expansion

17:53Structural Disadvantages of Meta and Google: iOS Limitations and Privacy Standards

Structural Disadvantages of Meta and Google: iOS Limitations and Privacy Standards

21:22Creative Relevancy and Organizational DNA: Challenges for Meta and Google

Creative Relevancy and Organizational DNA: Challenges for Meta and Google

25:47Summarizing the Bull Case: AppLovin's Dominance and Potential Threats from Competitors

Summarizing the Bull Case: AppLovin's Dominance and Potential Threats from Competitors

28:06AppLovin as the Tallest Nail: Potential Motivation for Meta and Google to Compete

AppLovin as the Tallest Nail: Potential Motivation for Meta and Google to Compete

Part 3: The Bear Case, Risks, Compliance

29:48Framing the Bear Case: Valuation, Growth Durability, and Competitive Convergence

Framing the Bear Case: Valuation, Growth Durability, and Competitive Convergence

32:25Deplatforming Risk: SEC Investigation and Potential Revenue Impact

Deplatforming Risk: SEC Investigation and Potential Revenue Impact

34:46AppLovin's Edge: Optimization and Platform-Compliant Signals

AppLovin's Edge: Optimization and Platform-Compliant Signals

36:58Silent Installs and the Short Seller Reports: A Clean Run for AppLovin?

Silent Installs and the Short Seller Reports: A Clean Run for AppLovin?

39:35Insider Selling and Over-Attribution: Bearish Indicators?

Insider Selling and Over-Attribution: Bearish Indicators?

41:29Click Fraud and the App Store Experience: AppLovin's Tactics

Click Fraud and the App Store Experience: AppLovin's Tactics

43:22Attribution Challenges and Click Spamming: How Publishers Attribute

Attribution Challenges and Click Spamming: How Publishers Attribute

Part 4: Platform Stability, Infrastructure

45:23Deplatforming Timeframe and AppLovin's Core Position

Deplatforming Timeframe and AppLovin's Core Position

47:31Infrastructure Risk: Moving Away from Max and the Loss of Axon

Infrastructure Risk: Moving Away from Max and the Loss of Axon

49:53Adjust's Deplatforming and the Definition of Deplatforming

Adjust's Deplatforming and the Definition of Deplatforming

51:22Deplatforming Probability and Potential Outcomes: Fines and Platform Restrictions

Deplatforming Probability and Potential Outcomes: Fines and Platform Restrictions

53:26Losing Grip on Supply: The Key Binary Outcome Negative Risk

Losing Grip on Supply: The Key Binary Outcome Negative Risk

55:57Max's Underdevelopment and Unity's Ad Quality Tool

Max's Underdevelopment and Unity's Ad Quality Tool

57:30AdRoas Lock-in and E-commerce Scaling: A Structural Risk

AdRoas Lock-in and E-commerce Scaling: A Structural Risk

Part 5: Technical Edge, Data Innovation

1:00:01Headcount Numbers and Axon's Performance Advantage: Data Shenanigans vs. Technical Sophistication

Headcount Numbers and Axon's Performance Advantage: Data Shenanigans vs. Technical Sophistication

1:02:32Machine Learning and Data Advantages: AppLovin's Innovations

Machine Learning and Data Advantages: AppLovin's Innovations

1:05:31E-commerce and Axon 2: The Need for Success Signals

E-commerce and Axon 2: The Need for Success Signals

1:08:00MFA Inventory at Risk: The Impact on AppLovin

MFA Inventory at Risk: The Impact on AppLovin

1:11:09E-commerce Penetration and Brand Advertising: A Positive Story

E-commerce Penetration and Brand Advertising: A Positive Story

1:14:15Brand Advertising and Viewability Concerns: AppLovin's Targeting

Brand Advertising and Viewability Concerns: AppLovin's Targeting

Part 6: Competitive Landscape, Future Outlook

1:17:31Google's Privacy Sandbox: Officially Dead?

Google's Privacy Sandbox: Officially Dead?

1:19:01Unity and Moloco: Room for Growth and the Importance of Competition

Unity and Moloco: Room for Growth and the Importance of Competition

1:21:45In-App Ad Network Dynamics: Pricing and Inventory

In-App Ad Network Dynamics: Pricing and Inventory

1:23:41Platform Holders and Home Field Advantage: Google and Apple

Platform Holders and Home Field Advantage: Google and Apple

1:25:41Special Data and the Future of Competition: Google, Meta, and Unity

Special Data and the Future of Competition: Google, Meta, and Unity