In this critical episode, host Jim Carouso welcomes two leading experts on the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) agreement to examine whether the landmark trilateral security partnership can deliver on its promises four years after its launch. Charlie Edel, inaugural Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Abe Denmark, senior fellow at CSIS and a former DOD official who helped implement AUKUS, join to discuss their new report, "The AUKUS Inflection: Seizing the Opportunity to Deliver Deterrence."

The conversation dives deep into five fundamental challenges threatening AUKUS’ success:

• Submarine production bottlenecks plague the U.S. industrial base, with maintenance backlogs keeping 25% of attack submarines out of the water.

• Sovereignty questions have emerged as Washington reportedly seeks Australian operational commitments for future contingencies.

• Australia faces the massive challenge of building a nuclear submarine workforce from scratch—requiring 20,000 new skilled workers in a country with virtually no civilian nuclear industry.

• AUKUS “Pillar 2” technology cooperation lacks focus and marquee deliverables despite bureaucratic progress on export controls and information sharing.

•⁠⁠ Timeline pressures mount as critics question whether AUKUS capabilities will arrive too late for current deterrence needs, with Australian submarine construction not beginning until 2040.

The experts propose concrete solutions: appointing AUKUS special representatives reporting directly to leaders in all three countries; creating an AUKUS visa system for seamless researcher mobility; establishing trilateral congressional oversight mechanisms; producing annual progress reports for transparency and accountability; and concentrating Pillar 2 efforts on autonomy, long-range strike and integrated missile defense rather than spreading resources across quantum computing and other emerging technologies that lawmakers struggle to understand.

Denmark emphasizes that AUKUS should be viewed as additive rather than subtractive to existing capabilities, with Australian maintenance facilities and industrial contributions helping get more U.S. submarines operational faster. The discussion also touches on recent diplomatic engagements, including Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles' meetings in Washington amid ongoing U.S. reviews of the partnership.

Both experts stress that while AUKUS faces significant implementation challenges, failure would damage U.S. credibility, weaken deterrence, and embolden adversaries. Success requires immediate course corrections, increased funding, and sustained political commitment across all three democracies to deliver meaningful capabilities for Indo-Pacific security.

👉 Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast, LinkedIn, or BlueSky

👉 Follow Jim on LinkedIn

👉 Follow Ray Powell on X, @GordianKnotRay, or LinkedIn, or check out his maritime transparency work at SeaLight

👉 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Why Should We Care if AUKUS is at a Crossroads? | with Charlie Edel and Abe Denmark

Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?