Citrini’s 26 Trades for 2026 | Citrini on BS Jobs, AI Materials, Advanced Packaging, World Cup, & More | Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack Farley interviews Citrini about thematic equity research and investment opportunities for 2026. Citrini shares insights from his "26 Trades for 2026" piece, discussing themes like AI broadening, advanced packaging, and potential commodity supply squeezes in natural gas and copper. They explore the "AI Bureaucracy Alpha" framework, identifying companies ripe for AI-driven margin improvements, and discuss the concept of "Post-Traumatic Supply Disorder" affecting capital expenditure decisions in cyclical markets. The conversation also covers the debate between Google and NVIDIA in AI infrastructure, the potential of on-device AI inference, and a unique trade involving MicroStrategy's preferred securities. Citrini emphasizes the importance of a thematic watch list and rigorous tracking of investment performance through tools like the Citrindex, which is offered alongside Citrini Research through a Substack bundle.

Outlines

Part 1: Thematic Research, Methodology

Part 2: AI Infrastructure, Hardware, Supply Chain

Part 3: Commodities, Macro Thesis

Part 4: Big Tech, AI Strategy, Market Risks

Part 5: Portfolio Strategy, Future Outlook

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Citrini’s 26 Trades for 2026 | Citrini on BS Jobs, AI Materials, Advanced Packaging, World Cup, & More

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Part 1: Thematic Research, Methodology

Introduction to Thematic Equity Research and Citrini's Approach

Thematic Factors and AI Trade Broadening

Identifying Companies Poised for AI-Driven Efficiency Gains

Addressing Concerns and Counterarguments About AI's Impact

Part 2: AI Infrastructure, Hardware, Supply Chain

Shifting Focus from AI Infrastructure to Beneficiaries

Advanced Packaging as a Key Bottleneck in AI

Synopsys and the AI-Driven Custom Silicon Revolution

Identifying Bottlenecks in the AI Supply Chain

Part 3: Commodities, Macro Thesis

Macro Thesis for Natural Gas and Copper

Diversification in Natural Gas and Post-Traumatic Supply Disorder

Screening for PTSD Opportunities and Lithium's Potential

Part 4: Big Tech, AI Strategy, Market Risks

Google's TPU Strategy and the Silicon Curtain in China

OpenAI's Funding and Microsoft's Copilot Challenges

Debating the Depreciation Argument and Customer Concentration in AI

Broadcom, NVIDIA, and the Dot-Com Bubble Parallel

Part 5: Portfolio Strategy, Future Outlook

Inference on Device and Shorting MicroStrategy Preferreds

Diversification vs. Concentration and Robotics

World Cup and Fiscal Transfers as 2026 Trade Ideas

Citrini’s 26 Trades for 2026 | Citrini on BS Jobs, AI Materials, Advanced Packaging, World Cup, & More

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Part 1: Thematic Research, Methodology

00:00Introduction to Thematic Equity Research and Citrini's Approach

Introduction to Thematic Equity Research and Citrini's Approach

07:13Thematic Factors and AI Trade Broadening

Thematic Factors and AI Trade Broadening

14:55Identifying Companies Poised for AI-Driven Efficiency Gains

Identifying Companies Poised for AI-Driven Efficiency Gains

21:35Addressing Concerns and Counterarguments About AI's Impact

Addressing Concerns and Counterarguments About AI's Impact

Part 2: AI Infrastructure, Hardware, Supply Chain

27:21Shifting Focus from AI Infrastructure to Beneficiaries

Shifting Focus from AI Infrastructure to Beneficiaries

32:52Advanced Packaging as a Key Bottleneck in AI

Advanced Packaging as a Key Bottleneck in AI

38:18Synopsys and the AI-Driven Custom Silicon Revolution

Synopsys and the AI-Driven Custom Silicon Revolution

42:23Identifying Bottlenecks in the AI Supply Chain

Identifying Bottlenecks in the AI Supply Chain

Part 3: Commodities, Macro Thesis

49:53Macro Thesis for Natural Gas and Copper

Macro Thesis for Natural Gas and Copper

55:13Diversification in Natural Gas and Post-Traumatic Supply Disorder

Diversification in Natural Gas and Post-Traumatic Supply Disorder

1:01:14Screening for PTSD Opportunities and Lithium's Potential

Screening for PTSD Opportunities and Lithium's Potential

Part 4: Big Tech, AI Strategy, Market Risks

1:07:37Google's TPU Strategy and the Silicon Curtain in China

Google's TPU Strategy and the Silicon Curtain in China

1:14:31OpenAI's Funding and Microsoft's Copilot Challenges

OpenAI's Funding and Microsoft's Copilot Challenges

1:21:23Debating the Depreciation Argument and Customer Concentration in AI

Debating the Depreciation Argument and Customer Concentration in AI

1:27:09Broadcom, NVIDIA, and the Dot-Com Bubble Parallel

Broadcom, NVIDIA, and the Dot-Com Bubble Parallel

Part 5: Portfolio Strategy, Future Outlook

1:34:34Inference on Device and Shorting MicroStrategy Preferreds

Inference on Device and Shorting MicroStrategy Preferreds

1:41:41Diversification vs. Concentration and Robotics

Diversification vs. Concentration and Robotics

1:47:39World Cup and Fiscal Transfers as 2026 Trade Ideas

World Cup and Fiscal Transfers as 2026 Trade Ideas