EP.008: Palantir ($PLTR): Irrationally Overvalued - Could Significant Index Rebalance be the Catalyst to Break it?

The podcast explores the potential short opportunity in Palantir (PLTR) due to its overvaluation and an upcoming index rebalancing. Adam Parker from Trivariate Research, using a quantitative lens, argues that Palantir's current enterprise value is unsustainable given its forecasted sales growth, deeming it the most overvalued stock he has seen in his career. A key catalyst identified is the Russell rebalance, where Palantir's shift from the mid-cap to large-cap index could trigger indiscriminate selling by mid-cap fund managers who were compelled to hold it for risk management. Parker suggests that while Palantir benefits from AI tailwinds and government relationships, its valuation disconnects from fundamental math, making it a compelling short idea, especially post-rebalancing.