In this monologue, Peter Thiel explores the philosophical question of luck versus skill in startups and life, suggesting society is biased towards attributing success to luck. He introduces a framework for understanding the future based on optimism/pessimism and determinacy/indeterminacy, mapping historical periods and countries within this matrix. Thiel critiques the current "indeterminate optimism" in the U.S., characterized by low savings and investment, and contrasts it with "determinate pessimism" in China. He argues that a shift from definite to indefinite views of the future has led to the dominance of finance over engineering, where money becomes an end in itself. Thiel uses examples from politics, literature, philosophy, and aging to illustrate the effects of indeterminacy, advocating for a return to definite optimism with long-term visions and robust plans, exemplified by companies like Apple and Facebook.
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