In this episode of Forward Guidance, Felix interviews Warren Pies, founder of 314 Research, about his reflections on the past year and outlook for 2026. Warren discusses his firm's forecasts for 2025, highlighting both successes and misses, and emphasizes the importance of the overall macro framework. He shares his views on inflation, the labor market, and the potential for a "Goldilocks" economy in the first half of 2026. Warren also touches on the Fed's policy decisions, the K-shaped economy, and asset allocation strategies, including equities and commodities, as well as the potential impact of the Fed's balance sheet operations.
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