China's EUV Manhattan Project and Export Control Mythbusting with Chris McGuire

In this episode of the AI Policy Podcast, host Greg Allen interviews Chris McGuire, a Senior Fellow for China and Emerging Technologies at the Council on Foreign Relations. McGuire, formerly of the National Security Council and State Department, discusses the complexities of AI, semiconductors, and U.S.-China relations. The episode adopts a "MythBusters" format, addressing common arguments against AI and export controls, rating them as fact, fiction, or somewhere in between. They dissect a Reuters report about China's progress on EUV machines, the state of Chinese chipmaking, and the impact of export controls. McGuire emphasizes that China's indigenous EUV program is not surprising but also part of a propaganda campaign to undermine export controls. They also discuss the quality and quantity of Huawei's chips compared to NVIDIA's, the impact of TSMC violations, and the need to control remote access to chips.

Outlines

Part 1: Background, Context

Part 2: China's Capabilities, Propaganda

Part 3: MythBusters: Indigenization, Economics

Part 4: Loopholes, Future Policy

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Center for Strategic & International Studies

Part 1: Background, Context

Introduction to Chris McGuire and the AI Policy Podcast's MythBusters Format

The NSCAI's Impact on Export Controls and Chris McGuire's Career Trajectory

Part 2: China's Capabilities, Propaganda

Analysis of the Reuters Report on China's EUV Machine Prototype

Propaganda, Export Controls, and Huawei's Chipmaking Capabilities

Huawei's Chip Quality and Production Challenges

Part 3: MythBusters: Indigenization, Economics

The Growing Gap in AI Compute and the Myth of Forced Indigenization

Legislative Efforts and the Impact of Export Controls on American Companies

The Long-Term Impact of Export Controls and the Myth of AI Chip Smuggling

Part 4: Loopholes, Future Policy

Compute Smuggling and Strategies for Constraining China's Access to Compute

Addressing Gaps in Export Controls and the Myth of China's AI Progress

The Myth of Addiction to US Chips and the Biggest Mistakes and Opportunities in Export Control Policy

Conclusion and Appreciation

China's EUV Manhattan Project and Export Control Mythbusting with Chris McGuire

Center for Strategic & International Studies

Part 1: Background, Context

00:00Introduction to Chris McGuire and the AI Policy Podcast's MythBusters Format

Introduction to Chris McGuire and the AI Policy Podcast's MythBusters Format

04:08The NSCAI's Impact on Export Controls and Chris McGuire's Career Trajectory

The NSCAI's Impact on Export Controls and Chris McGuire's Career Trajectory

Part 2: China's Capabilities, Propaganda

11:33Analysis of the Reuters Report on China's EUV Machine Prototype

Analysis of the Reuters Report on China's EUV Machine Prototype

22:24Propaganda, Export Controls, and Huawei's Chipmaking Capabilities

Propaganda, Export Controls, and Huawei's Chipmaking Capabilities

31:35Huawei's Chip Quality and Production Challenges

Huawei's Chip Quality and Production Challenges

Part 3: MythBusters: Indigenization, Economics

39:33The Growing Gap in AI Compute and the Myth of Forced Indigenization

The Growing Gap in AI Compute and the Myth of Forced Indigenization

47:58Legislative Efforts and the Impact of Export Controls on American Companies

Legislative Efforts and the Impact of Export Controls on American Companies

54:08The Long-Term Impact of Export Controls and the Myth of AI Chip Smuggling

The Long-Term Impact of Export Controls and the Myth of AI Chip Smuggling

Part 4: Loopholes, Future Policy

1:03:09Compute Smuggling and Strategies for Constraining China's Access to Compute

Compute Smuggling and Strategies for Constraining China's Access to Compute

1:11:16Addressing Gaps in Export Controls and the Myth of China's AI Progress

Addressing Gaps in Export Controls and the Myth of China's AI Progress

1:19:30The Myth of Addiction to US Chips and the Biggest Mistakes and Opportunities in Export Control Policy

The Myth of Addiction to US Chips and the Biggest Mistakes and Opportunities in Export Control Policy

1:27:27Conclusion and Appreciation

Conclusion and Appreciation