This podcast episode examines the Iranian stock market, its geopolitical risks, investment potential, and challenges. It highlights the market's resilience during geopolitical events, analyzes economic factors that drive investments, and explores the impact of sanctions and deglobalization on Iran's economy.
Takeaways
• The Iranian stock market has potential for growth due to its significant size and lack of foreign investors.
• The Tehran stock market is the largest stock market that no one has ever heard of, with a market cap around 250 billion dollars.
• The Iranian stock market has historically been resilient to geopolitical events, with declines never exceeding 10% in dollar terms.
• The Iranian currency, the rial, has remained stable due to sufficient reserves accumulated by the Central Bank of Iran.
• Retail sentiment and inflows in the Iranian stock market are driven by factors such as the dollar exchange rate, momentum, local interest rates, and availability of other asset classes.
• Economic sanctions have primarily affected Iranian households, leading to rising inflation and decreased spending power.
• Iran is shifting its focus regionally, joining organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
• Younger Iranians born after the revolution in 1979 are driving changes and liberalization in the country.
