The speaker analyzes Bitcoin's on-chain risk metric, comparing the current market cycle to the "non-euphoric peak" of 2019. He explains how various on-chain indicators are normalized to create a risk metric, noting that euphoric tops typically exceed 0.8 risk, while the current cycle, similar to 2019, reached the 0.6 to 0.7 band. Key similarities with 2019 include topping on apathy, a lack of immediate altcoin market movement, and Bitcoin bleeding into the end of quantitative tightening (QT) by the Federal Reserve. The speaker suggests that Bitcoin dominance also rose during both periods, outperforming other crypto assets. He anticipates a relief rally in the coming months but expects the on-chain risk to continue dropping, particularly in the first half of 2026, identifying 0 to 0.1 risk as historically good buying opportunities.
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