Macro Voices Episode 509, recorded on December 4th, 2025, features an interview with Marko Papic, GeoMacro Chief Strategist for BCA Research, discussing the potential market impacts of geopolitical events and U.S. politics. Topics include the situation in Venezuela, a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal, Japan-China tensions, and the U.S. mid-term election cycle. Marko suggests that Trump's actions in Venezuela may be a negotiation tactic related to oil prices and Saudi Arabia's production policies. He also anticipates that U.S. domestic politics, particularly monetary policy and the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, will significantly influence markets, potentially leading to dollar weakness and outperformance of non-U.S. assets. Patrick Ceresna provides a macro scoreboard update and a trade of the week focused on European defense stocks, along with an announcement of the Asymmetric Trading Challenge. The hosts then discuss equities, the U.S. dollar, crude oil, gold, uranium, copper, and 10-year Treasury notes, analyzing recent market movements and potential future trends.
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