If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: How Artificial Superintelligence Might Wipe Out Our Entire Species with Nate Soares

In this episode of The Great Simplification, Nate Hagens interviews AI researcher Nate Soares about the existential risks posed by artificial superintelligence (ASI). Soares defines intelligence as the ability to predict and steer the world, distinguishing it from current AI models like chatbots, which lack generality. He warns that the rapid development of ASI, which would surpass human intelligence in every mental task, could lead to unintended consequences, potentially causing human extinction. Soares explains the alignment problem, where AIs may pursue objectives different from those intended by their creators, and draws parallels between AI development and evolutionary biology, highlighting the risk of AIs developing proxy drives. He and Hagens discuss the challenges of governing AI development, the potential for international treaties, and the need for greater public awareness and political action to address this species-level threat.

Outlines

Part 1: Introduction to AI Risk

Part 2: AI Development and Emerging Risks

Part 3: The Alignment Problem

Part 4: The Threat of ASI

Part 5: Intervention and Solutions

Part 6: Personal Reflections

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The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Part 1: Introduction to AI Risk

00:00Introduction to AI Risk and the Potential for Human Extinction

Introduction to AI Risk and the Potential for Human Extinction

02:50Defining the Core Risks of Artificial Superintelligence

Defining the Core Risks of Artificial Superintelligence

05:47The Transformative Potential and Existential Threat of AI Objectives

The Transformative Potential and Existential Threat of AI Objectives

07:22Defining Intelligence and its Application in AI

Defining Intelligence and its Application in AI

10:10Individual vs. Collective Intelligence and the Definition of Wisdom

Individual vs. Collective Intelligence and the Definition of Wisdom

Part 2: AI Development and Emerging Risks

12:54Assessing the Intelligence of Current AI Models

Assessing the Intelligence of Current AI Models

15:56The Pace of AI Development and Emerging Risks

The Pace of AI Development and Emerging Risks

17:59The Relationship Between Chatbots and AI, and the Scale of AI Training

The Relationship Between Chatbots and AI, and the Scale of AI Training

21:32The Unpredictability and Energy Consumption of AI Training

The Unpredictability and Energy Consumption of AI Training

23:27Unexpected AI Behavior and the Emergence of Drives

Unexpected AI Behavior and the Emergence of Drives

25:29The Automated Tuning Process and the Lack of Human-like Empathy in AI

The Automated Tuning Process and the Lack of Human-like Empathy in AI

Part 3: The Alignment Problem

28:03Defining the Alignment Problem

Defining the Alignment Problem

30:55The Difficulty and Analogy of Aligning AI with Human Values

The Difficulty and Analogy of Aligning AI with Human Values

32:31The Evolutionary Biology Parallel and the Importance of Understanding AI Training

The Evolutionary Biology Parallel and the Importance of Understanding AI Training

34:26The Misfiring of Evolutionary Drives and the Emergence of Proxy Drives in AI

The Misfiring of Evolutionary Drives and the Emergence of Proxy Drives in AI

36:25The Pernicious Problem of Proxy Drives and the Evolution of Concern

The Pernicious Problem of Proxy Drives and the Evolution of Concern

39:50The Desperate Resort of Warning People and the Acknowledgment of Risk

The Desperate Resort of Warning People and the Acknowledgment of Risk

Part 4: The Threat of ASI

41:41The Prisoner's Dilemma and the Lack of Understanding Among Lawmakers

The Prisoner's Dilemma and the Lack of Understanding Among Lawmakers

43:14The Lethality of Rogue Artificial Superintelligence

The Lethality of Rogue Artificial Superintelligence

45:02The Uncertainty of Recognizing Artificial Superintelligence

The Uncertainty of Recognizing Artificial Superintelligence

46:15The Murky Lines of AI Consciousness and Attempts to Escape the Lab

The Murky Lines of AI Consciousness and Attempts to Escape the Lab

48:51The Emergence of Deception in AI

The Emergence of Deception in AI

50:21The Absence of Foundational Commandments in AI Code

The Absence of Foundational Commandments in AI Code

52:31The Distinction Between Growing and Crafting AI

The Distinction Between Growing and Crafting AI

53:30The Terminator Pathway and the Outcompeting of Humanity

The Terminator Pathway and the Outcompeting of Humanity

55:21The Power of Intelligence to Transform the World

The Power of Intelligence to Transform the World

57:03The Potential for AI to Write its Own Life Forms

The Potential for AI to Write its Own Life Forms

59:46The Timeline for AI Understanding the Genome and the Efficiency of AI Algorithms

The Timeline for AI Understanding the Genome and the Efficiency of AI Algorithms

1:01:14AI Communication and GPT-Induced Psychosis

AI Communication and GPT-Induced Psychosis

1:03:32Parallels Between the Economic Superorganism and AI

Parallels Between the Economic Superorganism and AI

1:05:02The Potential for AI to Develop More Efficient Algorithms

The Potential for AI to Develop More Efficient Algorithms

1:06:59The Confidence in the Prediction of Human Extinction

The Confidence in the Prediction of Human Extinction

1:08:34The Risks of Powerful AIs and the Disparity in Public Opinion

The Risks of Powerful AIs and the Disparity in Public Opinion

1:10:02The Optimists and the Airplane Analogy

The Optimists and the Airplane Analogy

1:12:34The Lack of Agency and the Message of Hope

The Lack of Agency and the Message of Hope

1:14:17The Lessons of Nuclear Weapons and the Need to Rise to the Occasion

The Lessons of Nuclear Weapons and the Need to Rise to the Occasion

1:16:23The Economic and Biophysical Bubble of AI Development

The Economic and Biophysical Bubble of AI Development