In this episode, Chuck Todd breaks down the surprising Democratic overperformance in Tennessee’s TN-07 special election and what it signals about a rapidly shifting political landscape. From early cracks in Trump’s coalition to the GOP narrowly avoiding a full-scale collapse in a district they should have won easily, Chuck explains why this political environment is inching toward a Democratic “wave.” He digs into why Aftyn Behn’s imperfections didn’t stop her from overperforming, why Republicans can’t replicate this win in dozens of upcoming races, and how establishment ties have become toxic for candidates in Trump’s GOP. With ACA subsidies, tariffs, and Venezuela emerging as major vulnerabilities—and Trump issuing weekly, indefensible pardons—Chuck argues we may be witnessing the end stages of the Trump era. Plus, he makes the case that Democrats’ Senate prospects are stronger than people realize, especially in an environment defined by high Democratic enthusiasm and a struggling economy.

Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 at-risk Senate seats in a “blue wave” election and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Takeaways from the TN-07 special election

02:15 Trend of Democrat overperformance continued in Tennessee

03:00 Is this political environment turning into a “wave” scenario for Democrats?

04:00 We’ve already started seeing cracks in Trump’s coalition

05:00 A loss in TN-07 would have led to the bottom falling out for the GOP

07:00 Aftyn Behn was not the perfect candidate for Dems in TN-07

08:45 Republicans will struggle to replicate this win in 35-40 races

11:00 Being associated with the establishment can be the kiss of death

11:30 Democrats are in a great political environment, Trump’s grip is slipping

12:15 GOP will likely extend ACA subsidies to mitigate the political damage

13:30 Tariffs and Venezuela are two big political liabilities for GOP

16:00 There was no mention of Trump from Matt Van Epps during campaign

16:30 There aren’t any positive future headlines coming for Republicans

18:15 We’re at the end stages of the Trump era

19:15 Environment will be high Democrat enthusiasm, with a bad economy

20:30 Trump’s granting indefensible pardons on a weekly basis

22:00 People are underrating Democrats chances of winning senate

24:00 If history is a guide, the likelihood of Dems winning 4 senate seats is high

30:30 ToddCast Top 5 Senate seats on “blue wave watch”

31:15 Historical precedents for massive upsets during wave years

34:15 #5 Florida

36:30 #4 Kentucky

38:45 #3 South Carolina

43:15 #2 Mississippi

44:45 #1 Montana

46:45 Ask Chuck

47:00 Thanks for having Clay Travis on to push us outside our bubbles

49:15 What to make of all the censures in congress?

53:30 How do the U.S. & Europe get responsible leaders into power?

1:01:15 Why is Biden facing challenges fundraising for his library?

1:05:00 Could Trump’s legacy become that of Benedict Arnold?

1:08:45 Could we see a mixed party presidential ticket in the future?

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Chuck’s Commentary - Republicans Avoid Disaster In Tennessee, But The Midterms Look Great For Democrats + Top 5 Senate Seats A “Wave” Election Could Put In Play

The Chuck ToddCast