ANDREW SMALL: Deciphering the Triangle: US Disorder, Chinese Ambition, and European Agency

Ivan Krastev hosts a geopolitical talk featuring Andrew Small, an expert on China, to discuss the evolving dynamics between the United States, Europe, and China. Small lays out the historical context, drawing parallels to the Sino-Soviet split, and argues that the West is now in a state of potential schism while the China-Russia partnership strengthens. He points out tactical missteps by the U.S. and ongoing self-sabotage weakening Western alliances, which provide China with strategic advantages. Small suggests Europe faces a choice between fatalism, self-deception, or taking decisive action to protect its industries and interests, emphasizing the need for a non-U.S.-centric framework and collaboration with other economies. The discussion extends to China's internal shifts, its view of the West, the risks associated with Taiwan, and the puzzling U.S. policy toward India. The session concludes with questions from the audience, addressing the stability of the Russo-Sino relationship, the potential for China to invade Taiwan, Europe’s response to Chinese economic coercion, and China's endgame in the Arctic.