Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows

In this episode of Forward Guidance, Felix Jauvin interviews Capital Flows about macroeconomics, focusing on credit growth, market liquidity, and geopolitical factors influencing investment strategies. Capital Flows shares his framework for analyzing credit creation by monitoring corporate debt issuance relative to cash flows and market risk appetite. The conversation covers the Fed's recent hawkish pivot, its impact on real rates and market expectations, and the resilience of the U.S. economy despite missing government data. They explore the influence of cross-border capital flows and trade dynamics, particularly the U.S.-China relationship, on market liquidity and asset valuations. The discussion also touches on specific asset classes like gold and Bitcoin, with Capital Flows expressing a neutral stance on Bitcoin due to underperformance compared to other high-beta sectors.