In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed’s dilemma, AI’s real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in the labor market, inflation, tariffs, and risk assets, and then breaks down how Unlimited is building replication-based ETF strategies to capture hedge fund returns at low cost.

Topics covered:
• The late-cycle economy and the disconnect between markets and weakening real-world data
• Why labor markets look softer than headlines suggest
• How tariffs are affecting inflation, growth, and consumer spending
• The Fed’s policy bind and why reasonable cases exist for both cutting and holding
• The slowdown in household income growth and the idea of a “slow-cession”
• AI spending, productivity claims, and why the economic benefits are not yet showing up
• The self-referential nature of Big Tech AI spending and poor return on AI CapEx
• Why real-economy companies may not see meaningful profit uplift from AI
• The private credit and private equity concerns Bob sees building
• Hidden risks and information asymmetry in private-market products
• New hedge-fund-style ETF strategies built using replication technology
• Equity long-short, global macro, and managed futures as standalone ETF exposures
• Why fee reduction is the most durable source of hedge-fund alpha
• How advisors are shifting from 60/40 toward 50/30/20 allocations with alternatives

Timestamps:
00:00 Macro conditions and weakening labor market
02:00 Disconnect between markets and the real economy
04:00 Working without government data during the shutdown
06:00 Inflation trends and tariff impacts
10:00 Fed policy, cuts, and late-cycle dynamics
12:30 Income-driven vs debt-driven cycles
15:00 Slow-cession and household spending power
18:30 Fed uncertainty and prediction challenges
21:00 Why the Fed paused quantitative tightening
25:00 Liquidity, reserves, and bank system mechanics
28:00 Equity markets, expectations, and AI mania
31:00 AI spending, productivity doubts, and return on investment
37:00 Business models, layoffs, and macro implications
40:00 Private credit, private equity, and hidden risks
45:00 How some private-market ETFs may disadvantage retail investors
47:00 New Unlimited ETF strategies and how replication works
52:00 Equity long-short, macro, and managed futures inside an ETF
55:00 Late-cycle benefits of tactical positioning
57:00 Future strategies and expanding the replication lineup
59:00 Fee advantages and democratizing hedge-fund-style returns

$1 Trillion AI Bet. $10 Billion in Profits | Bob Elliott on the AI Income That Isn't Coming

Excess Returns