In this week’s Macro Mondays James Todd is joined by Ed Hayden-Briffett and Will Cunliffe to unpack another turbulent week across global markets.

US equities hit fresh all-time highs as lower-than-expected CPI data fuels optimism - yet the rally is increasingly narrow, driven by speculative tech names with little to no earnings. Meanwhile, recession risks are flashing red, with UBS warning of a 93% probability and nearly a third of US states already contracting.

In Asia, China’s deflation deepens to its worst levels since 2004, while GDP growth slips below target and fixed-asset investment turns negative, underscoring the fragility of its recovery.

Commodities told a very different story: gold suffered its biggest single-day fall since 2013, silver followed suit, and the dollar rebounded as traders priced out rate cuts. Oil surged on renewed Russian sanctions, and volatility returned to precious metals markets.

Key highlights include:

✅ U.S. equites make new all-time highs S&P500 and Nasdaq

✅ While Gold & Silver come crashing down to earth

✅ Brent spikes on fresh Russian sanctions

✅ US CPI come in lower than expected

📊 Key data releases this week:

📅 Tuesday – Gfk consumer confidence, India Industrial Prod

📅 Wednesday – Spain GDP flash, US pending home sales, FOMC

📅 Thursday – Euro GDP, ECB interest rate decision

📅 Friday – China NBS PMI, Euro inflation, Germany retail sales

🕒 This episode aired live on Monday, the 27th of October, 2025 at 12:30pm GMT

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Markets Soar, Metals Sink & Recession Fears Return | Macro Monday

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