In this week’s Macro Mondays, James Brodie is joined by James Todd and Spyridon Kokas as they dive into the most recent market shifts. US regional banks are under pressure, while the broader banking sector now holds over $395 billion in unrealised losses tied to bond and securities markdowns.

At the same time, US equities are roaring into year-end, with record inflows into tech stocks and margin debt surging to the highest numbers on record.

Meanwhile, China’s macro picture continues to deteriorate. GDP growth slowed, household consumption weakened, and fixed asset investment contracted for the first time since 2020, highlighting a fragile domestic backdrop.

In the commodities space, precious metals were rocked by volatility, with both silver and palladium falling sharply despite record inflows into gold and silver ETFs the week prior. With global flash PMIs due this week, investors are increasingly forced to weigh risk-taking against a growing set of macro stress signals.

Key highlights include:
✅ US regional banks under pressure: $395B in unrealised losses
✅ China’s fixed investment falls for the first time since 2020
✅ France’s sovereign credit rating downgraded to A+
✅ Tech mania builds as hedge funds keep selling
✅ Precious metals rocked by volatility; Silver down 4.2%
✅ Brent crude trends lower; Bitcoin volatility picks up
✅ Netflix & Tesla earnings on watch

📊 Key data releases this week:
📅 Monday – Euro Area Current Account, Canadian PPI
📅 Tuesday – India Infrastructure Output, Canadian Inflation, Fed Waller speech
📅 Wednesday – UK Inflation, Japan Trade Data
📅 Thursday – French Business Confidence, Euro Area Consumer Confidence
📅 Friday – US CPI, UK Retail Sales, Global Flash PMIs, Japan Inflation

🕒 This episode was recorded on Monday, the 20th of October, 2025 at 1.30PM BST.

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China Cracks, Bank Losses Mount & Recession Risks Rise | Macro Monday

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