US Rates - Does QT's end matter for funding and Treasury markets?

In this episode of J.P. Morgan's "At Any Rate" podcast, Phoebe White and Teresa Ho discuss the rates market's recent volatility, influenced by headlines from Washington, bank earnings, and trade tensions. They delve into the front end of the curve, examining the firming in repo markets and the surprising spike in SOFR, questioning the effectiveness of the SRF facility. They also explore the implications of an earlier end to quantitative tightening (QT), with Teresa arguing it won't significantly alleviate year-end funding pressures, which are more related to balance sheet dynamics and regulatory ratios. Phoebe discusses the rates outlook, the stability of credit markets, and the potential impact of the IEPA decision and Treasury's refunding announcement on the yield curve and swap spreads. Finally, they analyze the recent weakness in TIPS break-evens, attributing it to oil prices and tariff news, while maintaining a medium-term target for wider break-evens.