#6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future

In this episode of The Knowledge Project, Shane Parrish interviews Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, about the art and science of prediction. Tetlock discusses his book, "Superforecasting," and explains how everyone is a forecaster in their daily lives. He details the Good Judgment Project's forecasting tournaments, highlighting the attributes of superforecasters, such as their belief in cultivating prediction skills, open-mindedness, and intelligence. The conversation explores techniques for improving forecasting accuracy, including debiasing exercises, considering the outside view, and breaking down complex problems into smaller components using the Fermi method. Tetlock also addresses the challenges of implementing forecasting tournaments in organizations due to political and psychological resistance, and emphasizes the importance of incentivizing accuracy. The discussion further covers synthesizing diverse views, the role of algorithms in aggregating forecasts, and the types of questions that lend themselves to better predictions, as well as the role of intuition.