Patrick Collison on Innovation and Scientific Progress

Scientific progress is potentially stagnating on a per-capita and per-dollar basis, despite massive increases in research investment. Patrick Collison, CEO of Stripe, argues that while aggregate innovation may remain constant, the productivity of individual researchers is declining, evidenced by stagnant total factor productivity, the increasing age of Nobel Prize winners, and the growing size of research teams. Current institutional structures, characterized by risk-averse funding mechanisms and rigid career paths, stifle creativity and discourage unconventional, high-impact research. Addressing this requires moving beyond traditional top-down funding models toward a portfolio of experimental approaches, such as empowering individual scientists to allocate research capital directly. By fostering environments that support diverse, high-variance bets, society can better nurture the "positive catastrophes" necessary for the breakthrough discoveries that drive long-term economic and human advancement.