This is a link post.

It turns out that airlines largely do not make their from from selling tickets. Instead, airlines are primarily in the business of selling credit card rewards.

Rewards programs are intangible assets, so the financials statements of major airlines do not generally give valuations for them. However, there are a couple public sources for how valuable these rewards programs are:

During COVID, many US major airlines applied for loans under the CARES Act. Some of them used their rewards programs as collateral for these loans, and both United and American publicly disclosed their reward programs' appraised values for this purpose.
On Point Loyalty, a consultancy firm focused on loyalty programs, published appraisals of most airlines' rewards programs in 2023 and in 2020. Their methodology is proprietary and it is unclear what data their numbers are based on, but the estimates agree with the CARES Act [...]

---

First published:
October 2nd, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fwZbrqqtcwibBM8Aw/no-that-s-not-what-the-flight-costs

Linkpost URL:
https://maxniederman.com/flight-cost

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

Bar graph comparing 2023 airline valuations and market caps across six carriers.

Bar graph comparing United and American airlines' pre-COVID valuations and market capitalization data.

Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.

[Linkpost] “No, That’s Not What the Flight Costs” by Max Niederman

LessWrong (30+ Karma)