How to Bring More Rigor to Your Long-Term Thinking

In this HBR IdeaCast episode, host Alison Beard interviews futurist Nick Foster, author of "Could Should Might Don't, How We Think About the Future," about his framework for improving long-term strategic planning. Foster outlines four types of futurism: "could" (optimistic, tech-centered), "should" (data-driven projections), "might" (scenario planning), and "don't" (identifying negative externalities). He critiques the over-reliance on any single approach and advocates for a more balanced, rigorous, and detailed consideration of the future, incorporating "the future mundane" – the granular, everyday implications of new technologies. Foster encourages companies to foster a culture where employees at all levels are empowered to ask questions about the potential impacts and unintended consequences of their work, and he emphasizes the importance of advocacy and air cover for futures initiatives to ensure they translate into actionable strategies.