How to Bring More Rigor to Your Long-Term Thinking

In this HBR IdeaCast episode, host Alison Beard interviews futurist Nick Foster, author of "Could Should Might Don't, How We Think About the Future," about his framework for improving long-term strategic planning. Foster outlines four types of futurism: "could" (optimistic, tech-centered), "should" (data-driven projections), "might" (scenario planning), and "don't" (identifying negative externalities). He critiques the over-reliance on any single approach and advocates for a more balanced, rigorous, and detailed consideration of the future, incorporating "the future mundane" – the granular, everyday implications of new technologies. Foster encourages companies to foster a culture where employees at all levels are empowered to ask questions about the potential impacts and unintended consequences of their work, and he emphasizes the importance of advocacy and air cover for futures initiatives to ensure they translate into actionable strategies.

Outlines

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HBR IdeaCast

Introduction to Future Prediction and Nick Foster's Framework

Defining and Critiquing "Could Futurism"

Examining "Should Futurism" and its Reliance on Data

Exploring "Might Futurism" and the Limits of Imagination

Understanding "Don't Futurism" and the Importance of Responsibility

The Need for Rethinking Future Planning and Addressing Change

Practical Steps for Integrating Future Thinking into Organizations

The Importance of Detail and the "Future Mundane"

The Payoff and Challenges of Holistic Futurism

Leadership, Responsibility, and Overcoming Sidelining of Futurism

Actionable Outcomes and the Need for Rigor in Future Thinking

How to Bring More Rigor to Your Long-Term Thinking

HBR IdeaCast

00:10Introduction to Future Prediction and Nick Foster's Framework

Introduction to Future Prediction and Nick Foster's Framework

03:37Defining and Critiquing "Could Futurism"

Defining and Critiquing "Could Futurism"

06:23Examining "Should Futurism" and its Reliance on Data

Examining "Should Futurism" and its Reliance on Data

08:42Exploring "Might Futurism" and the Limits of Imagination

Exploring "Might Futurism" and the Limits of Imagination

11:20Understanding "Don't Futurism" and the Importance of Responsibility

Understanding "Don't Futurism" and the Importance of Responsibility

14:27The Need for Rethinking Future Planning and Addressing Change

The Need for Rethinking Future Planning and Addressing Change

17:41Practical Steps for Integrating Future Thinking into Organizations

Practical Steps for Integrating Future Thinking into Organizations

21:03The Importance of Detail and the "Future Mundane"

The Importance of Detail and the "Future Mundane"

23:39The Payoff and Challenges of Holistic Futurism

The Payoff and Challenges of Holistic Futurism

26:11Leadership, Responsibility, and Overcoming Sidelining of Futurism

Leadership, Responsibility, and Overcoming Sidelining of Futurism

29:41Actionable Outcomes and the Need for Rigor in Future Thinking

Actionable Outcomes and the Need for Rigor in Future Thinking