US Rates: Analysing Eurex and US futures roll

Ipek Ozil and Khagendra Gupta discuss the drivers and outlook for the September/December US and Eurex bond futures rollover. They highlight differences between US and Eurex bond futures, noting delivery specifics. The macro backdrop for the US includes recent economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve easing, while Europe's backdrop involves ECB rate cuts and potential for further easing. Positioning is a major driver, particularly asset manager positions in the US and estimated positions in Europe. Other factors include the wildcard effect and basis richness in the US, and funding rates and CTD spreads in Europe. They provide views on calendar spreads, with bullish, bearish, or neutral stances based on these factors.