A16z Podcast

Key Takeaways

Human labor may become less valuable, but the property that humans own – such as the S&P 500 – will experience significant value growth
- Value will accrue to property owners, via capital income
A practical definition of AGI: AI that can do 98% of jobs as well as humans and can automate 95% of white collar work
People often think of AI replacing human jobs as a perfect substitute, but typically, new technological adoption is complementary to human labor
The key capability of learning on the job has not been unlocked; this is a technological unlock that could supersede the brand effect
- So while OpenAI is leading on brand, it could be usurped by a lab that makes a technical breakthrough
- Unless more compute comes online to continue the growth, we will have to rely on advancements in AI algorithms to carry the torch
With AI, capital and labor are functionally equivalent; we can just build more data centers and robot factories (which can build even more data centers and robot factories), thus creating an explosive dynamic
The optimistic vision for humanity’s role in an AI-driven future mirrors how we currently treat retirees: valuing their past contributions and supporting them even as they step back from direct economic productivity
The emergence of AGI will resemble the Industrial Revolution more than it will the creation of the atom bomb
- There was not ‘one machine’ that enabled the Industrial Revolution; there was a broader process of growth and automation due to many complementary innovations
A sovereign-wealth fund type structure may describe the future of human work: Humans buy shares in investment firms that manage the investment of AI stuff and then become broad-based shareholders in the development of AI
- This is what Alaska does with oil

In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith to explore one of the biggest questions in tech: what exactly is artificial general intelligence (AGI), and how close are we to achieving it?

They break down:

Competing definitions of AGI — economic vs. cognitive vs. “godlike”
Why reasoning alone isn’t enough — and what capabilities models still lack
The debate over substitution vs. complementarity between AI and human labor
What an AI-saturated economy might look like — from growth projections to UBI, sovereign wealth funds, and galaxy-colonizing robots
How AGI could reshape global power, geopolitics, and the future of work

Along the way, they tackle failed predictions, surprising AI limitations, and the philosophical and economic consequences of building machines that think, and perhaps one day, act, like us.

Timecodes:

0:00 Intro

0:33 Defining AGI and General Intelligence

2:38 Human and AI Capabilities Compared

7:00 AI Replacing Jobs and Shifting Employment

15:00 Economic Growth Trajectories After AGI

17:15 Consumer Demand in an AI-Driven Economy

31:00 Redistribution, UBI, and the Future of Income

31:58 Human Roles and the Evolving Meaning of Work

41:21 Technology, Society, and the Human Future

45:43 AGI Timelines and Forecasting Horizons

54:04 The Challenge of Predicting AI's Path

57:37 Nationalization, Geopolitics, and the Global AI Race

1:07:10 Brand and Network Effects in AI Dominance

1:09:31 Final Thoughts

Resources:

Find Dwarkesh on X: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp

Find Dwarkesh on YT: https://www.youtube.com/c/DwarkeshPatel

Subscribe to Dwarkesh’s Substack: https://www.dwarkesh.com/

Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinion

Subscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Dwarkesh and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy

Podcast Notes Playlist: Business