Global Commodities: Is volatility cheap in September?

In this episode of At Any Rate, Natasha Kaneva, head of J.P. Morgan Global Commodities Research, discusses the expected increase in oil price volatility in September 2025. She attributes this anticipated volatility to a convergence of bullish and bearish factors, including Trump's ultimatum to Russia, the new European price cap on Russian crude, the potential triggering of snapback provisions on Iran, the seasonal decline in Middle East oil demand, and the start of refinery maintenance. Kaneva suggests these events create a concentration of risk that is not currently priced into the market, leading to the expectation of higher volatility in the coming month.