The hunt for certainty is killing creativity.

Rory Sutherland, chairman of Ogilvy and the poet of persuasion, joins us live from Klaviyo London to challenge marketing's obsession with thin-tailed attribution. Brands are facing an existential crisis in an increasingly brandless, chat-interface powered world, but Sutherland believes that current measurement models are not designed to allow marketers to test, fail, learn, and grow, systematically destroying breakthrough potential.

Key takeaways:

Technology evolves from option to obligation: Parking apps that liberated us from coin machines now trap those without smartphones, while McDonald's screen-only outlets eliminate human flexibility
Marketing is fat-tailed, business is not thin-tailed: "10% of what you do delivers 130% of the value, but you don't know what the 10% is in advance." But marketing’s current measurement system is designed for us to fail. Attribution models punish necessary failures and do not credit long-term breakthroughs
Interface changes redistribute power overnight: When fundamental interaction modes shift from typing to voice and stores to apps, established advantages can disappear instantly, creating opportunities for complete market disruption
Brand value is multifarious, not monolithic: Fame, trust signals, and decision-making heuristics remain valuable even as chat interfaces challenge traditional brand expression. "People will come and find you rather than you having to find them." – Rory Sutherland
[00:06:13] "Interface change is always disruptive, because if you change the interface within which people choose and act, you fundamentally change behavior." - Rory Sutherland
[00:20:25] "There's a concern I always have about technology, which is the extent to which a lot of technology arrives as an option and ends up as an obligation." - Rory Sutherland
[00:42:47] "There's a danger that what [AI is] doing is enshrining groupthink. It's taking groupthink and effectively engraving it." - Rory Sutherland

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Rory Sutherland on the Fat Tail of Marketing

Future Commerce