RenMac's Head of Economics Neil Dutta on Recession Indicators

In this episode of Masters in Business, Barry Ritholtz interviews Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at RENMAC, about his career path from compensation analyst to market economist, emphasizing the distinction between academic and business economics. Dutta explains his role in translating economic research into actionable insights for investors, highlighting his accurate, out-of-consensus calls on inflation and recession. The conversation covers Dutta's views on the Fed's actions, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and the potential for a recession in 2025 or 2026, as well as the influence of trade policies and the US dollar on the economy. Dutta also shares his current concerns about the labor market, housing, and consumer sentiment, and what data points the Fed might be overlooking.

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Masters in Business

Introduction to Financial and Economic Podcasts and Neil Dutta's Background

Defining the Role of a Business Economist and Early Career at Merrill Lynch

Contrarian Call on Inflation in 2021 and the V-Shaped Recovery

Predicting No Recession in 2022 and Factors Driving Economic Momentum

Consumer Sentiment vs. Spending and Concerns About Labor Market Slowdown

Recession Likelihood, Fed Policy, and the Impact of Tariffs

Under-the-Radar Risks: The Fed Chair Appointee and Advice for Graduates

Key Insights on Investing and Concluding Remarks

RenMac's Head of Economics Neil Dutta on Recession Indicators

Masters in Business

00:00Introduction to Financial and Economic Podcasts and Neil Dutta's Background

Introduction to Financial and Economic Podcasts and Neil Dutta's Background

07:50Defining the Role of a Business Economist and Early Career at Merrill Lynch

Defining the Role of a Business Economist and Early Career at Merrill Lynch

18:30Contrarian Call on Inflation in 2021 and the V-Shaped Recovery

Contrarian Call on Inflation in 2021 and the V-Shaped Recovery

29:39Predicting No Recession in 2022 and Factors Driving Economic Momentum

Predicting No Recession in 2022 and Factors Driving Economic Momentum

37:14Consumer Sentiment vs. Spending and Concerns About Labor Market Slowdown

Consumer Sentiment vs. Spending and Concerns About Labor Market Slowdown

47:26Recession Likelihood, Fed Policy, and the Impact of Tariffs

Recession Likelihood, Fed Policy, and the Impact of Tariffs

57:30Under-the-Radar Risks: The Fed Chair Appointee and Advice for Graduates

Under-the-Radar Risks: The Fed Chair Appointee and Advice for Graduates

1:07:04Key Insights on Investing and Concluding Remarks

Key Insights on Investing and Concluding Remarks