The mindset of a contrarian investor – Anthony Bolton

In this interview, Nicolai Tangen speaks with Anthony Bolton, considered a father of contrarian investing, about his investment philosophy and experiences. Bolton explains that contrarian investing, doing the opposite of the crowd, can be profitable because few others do it, and popularity in the stock market often leads to risk. He emphasizes the importance of being comfortable with being different, backing one's convictions, and being unemotional and patient. Bolton shares his methods for gauging the stock market's mood, including looking at charts, shareholder lists, and insider trading activity, and he advocates for listening to opposing viewpoints to challenge one's own investment thesis. Currently, Bolton sees China as a contrarian investment opportunity and suggests selling American assets to fund it, while also noting that the US market may be nearing the top of its phase. He also touches on how passive investing and trend-following have changed the market, making trends last longer and creating new anomalies, and he highlights the importance of balancing defensive and offensive investment strategies.