crossposted from my blog

There are two ways we miscalibrate risk.

We risk too much on things that are low conviction
We risk too little on things that are high conviction

I learned these lessons in poker and in trading and they have helped me reason about broader life. I call them the fold pre principle and the pocket ace principle.

the fold pre principle

On poker forums there's a running gag. Whenever someone posts a complicated hand history and asks, “What should I have done here?” the top reply is “fold pre.”

Translation: You never should have played that hand in the first place.

It's a snarky answer that skips all of the nuance but that's exactly the point. The simplest fix was to never enter that low conviction spot at all. Everyone knows that they should cut their losers early but the fold pre principle is [...]

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Outline:

(01:07) the fold pre principle

(03:29) the pocket ace principle

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First published:
June 30th, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4F5yqZxDRvPJRkFE6/life-lessons-from-poker

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

Graph showing expected value in poker hands, ranked from AA to 72o.

This artwork shows a reflective sphere held by a hand, containing a room's interior scene. The drawing appears to be a lithograph or similar print medium, featuring spherical distortion that creates an interesting perspective effect. The highly detailed rendering shows both the carefully drawn hand and the complex reflective scene within the sphere. This type of image is reminiscent of M.C. Escher's style of mathematical and perspective-based art.

The interior scene reflected in the sphere includes furniture, a window, and bookshelves, all warped by the spherical surface. The contrast between the realistically rendered hand and the distorted interior creates a compelling visual paradox that challenges the viewer's perception of space and reality.

The piece appears to be numbered (1-35) and signed, suggesting it's part of a limited edition print series.

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“life lessons from poker” by thiccythot

LessWrong (30+ Karma)