Just two days after President Trump deployed America’s military to attack Iranian nuclear development sites, a shaky ceasefire between Israel and Iran brokered by President Trump emerged. So far, this deal appears to be holding, but there’s no formal ceasefire agreement in place—at least not yet.

It is clear that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure has suffered significant damage, but it’s not clear just how extensive that damage really is. That uncertainty leaves a lot of unanswered questions about where things go from here.

Will there be a formal ceasefire in the coming days? How did energy markets react to the rapid de-escalation? And is this conflict really over?

To help unpack the latest, leading experts at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University SIPA joined Jason Bordoff for a special rapid response episode to discuss what we know so far about the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, how oil markets reacted, and the status of American sanctions on Iran.

Richard Nephew is a senior research scholar at CGEP. He formerly served as the US deputy special envoy for Iran under the Biden administration where he played a key role in negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal.

Karen Young is a senior research scholar at CGEP and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, where she focuses on the political economy of the Gulf states and energy policy.

Daniel Sternoff is a non-resident fellow at CGEP. He is also the head of Energy Aspects’ Executive Briefing Service.

Richard, Karen and Daniel joined Jason on the afternoon of June 25 to discuss the current state of Iran’s nuclear program, the broader geopolitical and economic implications of this unfolding crisis, and where it all goes from here.

Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O’Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.

Navigating Israel-Iran Ceasefire Uncertainties

Columbia Energy Exchange