In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Director of Benchmarking Jorge Montepeque and Research Associate Vincent Wu to unpack a volatile week in oil markets following missile exchanges between Israel and Iran - exacerbated by the U.S. stepping in. With a dramatic rally in options and front-end time spreads giving way to an even sharper collapse, the team dissects what actually drove the price action—and what happens next.

This week’s discussion dives into:

• Why options (not flat price) drove the rally: open interest, hedging panic, and call buying hysteria

• The Strait of Hormuz closure fear trade; how serious is the risk of strait closure?

• The Polymarket signal, GPS jamming rumours, and real-time tanker trolling

• How ADNOC’s tactics sparked chaos in the physical market - and put the Murban benchmark at risk

• CTAs, hedge funds, and retail: who made money, and who got smoked?

• Refinery margins explode again: who hedged at the top and what it means for supply

• Plus: the return of OPEC to the spotlight - and why Trump’s oil tweets may matter more than ever

Want to trade?

Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe for weekly insights, smart trade ideas, and real trader talk from the front lines of the oil market. Please note, this episode was recorded at 8:30am BST on 24th June, 2025.

👉 Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

👉 Get industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux

👉 The Officials report: https://www.flux.live/the-official-re...

👉 Oil swaps dictionary: https://www.onyxmarkets.co.uk/oil-sw

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CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

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