Tim Harford interviews Alex Edmans, author of "May Contain Lies," to discuss how seemingly plausible statistics can be misleading. They analyze examples such as the correlation between breastfeeding and child health (where confounding factors like home environment are crucial), the link between inequality and social problems (arguing that poverty might be a more significant factor), and the relationship between company diversity and performance (highlighting the issue of varying performance metrics). Edmans emphasizes that while rigorous statistical analysis is ideal, individuals can improve their critical thinking by considering alternative explanations and imagining opposite results, particularly when a claim aligns with pre-existing beliefs.
