The Fed Is Still Choosing to Be “Late” On Rate Cuts | Weekly Roundup

In this episode of Forward Guidance, Felix, Quinn Thompson, and Joseph Wang convene in Washington, D.C., at the Monetarium II conference to dissect the latest FOMC meeting and its implications. They analyze the dot plot's revised economic projections, noting the down-ticked GDP growth forecast coupled with increased inflation and unemployment expectations. The discussion revolves around the Fed's commitment to remaining "late" in responding to economic data, potential impacts of tariffs, and the complexities of interpreting noisy economic indicators. They also explore the implications of a potential SLR exemption for treasuries, the dynamics of TGA refills, and the possibility of long bond yields exceeding 5%. The conversation shifts to global capital flows, the weakening of American exceptionalism, and portfolio strategies amidst these uncertainties, highlighting the challenges of navigating various asset classes and the potential benefits of holding gold and Bitcoin.