Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategist, discusses oil price dynamics in relation to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. He explains how the recent shift in the Brent forward curve, from a smile shape indicating near-term tightness and later surplus, to a downward-sloping curve reflecting a tighter market, is a response to the geopolitical situation. Rats outlines three potential scenarios for oil prices: a benign scenario with prices falling to around $60 per barrel, a scenario with Iran losing export capacity leading to prices around $75-$80 per barrel, and a severe scenario with broad regional disruption pushing prices to $120 per barrel. He concludes that while the most likely scenario is stable supply and lower prices, a risk premium of approximately $10 per barrel is justified due to the potential for more severe disruptions.
